Disease Outbreak - Listeriosis, Canada
It is Tuesday, August 26, 2008 and it is the kind of cool summer weather that one expects to find "at the cottage". My area of southern Ontario has an expected high temperature of +21 degrees Centigrade today, suitable to a late spring or early autumn. The Rose of Sharon bushes are blooming, and also goldenrod and Queen Anne's Lace.
The local news media have been reporting an outbreak of Listeriosis due to tainted meat produced in the Toronto meat packing plant of Maple Leaf Foods. Health Canada officials have praised Maple Leaf's actions in closing its Toronto plant for thorough cleaning of all processing lines, not just the two that were found to harbour lethal bacteria. This is of Canada-wide concern since the products are shipped throughout the nation. At date of posting 5 deaths are confirmed from this outbreak, with others suspected and subject to lab testing.
PROMED reported on August 25, 2008:
. . .the _Listeria monocytogenes_ outbreak . . .
. . . Most recently, the Public Health Agency of Canada has confirmed thatComment: The report states that no tainted meats were shipped across the border into the United States. However it is "tourist season" and it is possible that some tourists might have ingested tainted deli meats in fast food restaurants in Ontario. Quizno's restaurants stated (in an interview in the National Post newspaper) that Quizno's does not use any of the suspect products. As for other fast food outlets, it's a big unknown at this time.
there are 21 cases of the listeriosis outbreak confirmed in 4
provinces. The agency said 16 of the cases were found in Ontario, 3
in British Columbia, and one each in Saskatchewan and in Quebec.
The public health agency also said it suspects 30 more cases may be
linked to the listeria outbreak. Of those, 14 are in Ontario, 8 are
in Quebec, 4 are in Alberta, and 2 each are in British Columbia and
Saskatchewan.
The Maple Leaf recall, which began with a couple of brands a week
ago, now extends to everything from the company's Bartor Road plant
in Toronto, more than 200 products.
Brands include Artisan Collection, Best Value, Bittners,
Bittners/Schneiders, Boston Pizza, Burns, Campfire, Compliments,
Coorsh, Country Morning, Equality, Fleetwood, Foodservice, Generic,
Harmonie, Hickory Farms, Hygrade, Kirkland Signature, Main Street
Deli, Maple Leaf, Mayfair/Marque, McDonalds, Mitchell's, Mr. Sub, No
Name, Northern Best Value, Olympic, Our Compliments, Overlander,
Parma, Safeway, Schneiders, and Shopsys.
A full list of recalled products is available at
<http://files.newswire.ca/464/RecallList.pdf>.
McCain said consumers could return any Maple Leaf product with 97B on
the label, code for the Bartor Road plant, to their retailer for a
refund.
* My humble disclaimer. . . I am a hobbyist and diarist and not a journalist or epidemiologist. I hope that I don't have any of the suspect foods in my household! I'll have to check the package codes, and also hope that the restaurants that I go to have done the same! I love the internet for making information available; sometimes that's uncomfortable, but at least it's better than not even knowing what's going on.
Named Storms - FAY #3
It is Friday, August 22nd and the current temperature in my part of southern ON is 29 degrees Centigrade, with a humidex of 34. We started the morning at about 22. (The WOEC current conditions map shows Toronto at about 25.) This is welcome heat since I was beginning to get the idea that we would see snow by next week. Okay that is an exaggeration. But I realize that I've only worn shorts a couple of times this summer.
Progress of Named Storm FAY:
WOEC GOES IR and visible satellite image (at time of posting) shows named storm FAY sitting atop FL, GA and SC. In MB and midwest states: a cold front advances.
NOAA NHC Wind History chart for named storm Fay — at time of posting, the history shows progress across Hispaniola and Cuba and northward along the length of FL.
* My humble disclaimer: This is a post on my online diary. It is not a "weather report" or other journalistic product. The satellite view is ephemeral and the link is likely to elapse within a week or so. The wind swath history of Fay is a semi-archival product but is likely to update so long as FAY remains a current storm. At time of posting, Fay is a Tropical Storm. Weather is cool...
Named Storms - Fay #2
It is Tuesday, August 19, 2008, and the thunderstorm last night was so loud that the house shook. The rain was reasonably light (for this summer) and there was little wind, so there were no damaged trees nearby me. This is not a summer that should make a person panic about global climate change. We have had several summers in recent memory that were almost as rainy and almost as thundery. Indeed, one past summer the lightning was striking so frequently — right next to my house! — that we could hear the puddles sizzling from the heat. So. . . this summer is not outside the bounds of what has happened before.
CHC Track Prediction for named storm FAY — at time of posting the storm is expected to swing out into the Atlantic and not hit the whole of Florida; however the skirts of the storm will undoubtedly still bring wind and rain to the peninsula.
Comment: It's handy that the Canadian Hurricane Centre shows the track prediction right on top of the satellite image.
* My humble disclaimer: I am not a meteorologist, nor yet some kind of journalist that will always post "exactly" as events happen. I am a diarist that works long hours and usually tries to post just about when the evening thunderstorm hits! But today is supposed to be sunny, I hope. The CHC image originates at the Environment Canada Weather Office and will always show the current satellite view, until the link elapses. Weather is so cool.
Named Storms - FAY
It is Monday, August 18, 2008 and the afternoon thunderstorm is churning overhead at my part of southern ON.
Recent animal sightings include cardinals, juvenile deer, and a flock of geese crossing four lanes of traffic at Brock University, St. Catharines ON and motorists, accustomed to students, meekly waiting for them.
In my garden I have some snow peas and lots of salad greens, but my beans gave up the ghost due to this strange wet summer. In the local orchards, the apples are ripe and harvested, and the pears are almost ready for picking.
Meanwhile, the named storm FAY (at time of posting a tropical storm) seems poised to march along the length of Florida.
NOAA OSEI current satellite view of TS Fay.
* My humble disclaimer: I have to go now! My local thunderstorm has made it inadvisable for my computer to remain online. Weather is cool but sometimes inconvenient.
Named Storms Update
It is Sunday, July 20th, and my garden is sodden with rain. Many raspberries have rotted on the vine, though the ones that have not are very juicy and sweet. I have been at war with spider mites and might soon be in conflict with slugs because they threaten my (too wet and thus stressed-out) veggies.
Wildlife: I have seen a deer in a hayfield, and also one or perhaps two (at different times) bouncy bunnies enjoying the lawns nearby my home. A member of my family spotted a wild turkey, and I have seen swallows and terns in addition to the usual sparrows, robins, seagulls and mourning doves.
I am still uncertain if we (in my part of southern Ontario) are receiving a continuation of the cool wet spring weather, or if the whole summer will be like this. The usual pattern is for August to be very hot and much too dry, but until that month arrives I just can't know. One thing that I have observed. . . despite the great amount of rain, the water level of Lake Ontario has come down from its springtime high, which covered most neighbourhood beaches completely. So the sand of the beaches is visible again, if very narrow.
Current Named Storms (Atlantic):
NOAA NHC named storms Overview map at time of posting shows storms Cristobal and Dolly; Bertha is off the map to the north.
NOAA NHC Wind History of TS Bertha (at time of posting) — The red portions show the times when Bertha qualified to be described as a hurricane.
TROPICAL STORM BERTHA DISCUSSION NUMBER 70
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022008
1100 AM EDT SUN JUL 20 2008
BERTHA IS RAPIDLY LOSING TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS. THE WIND FIELD
HAS BECOME EXTREMELY ASYMMETRIC AND THE CONVECTION IS DIMINISHING
NEAR THE CENTER. THUS BERTHA IS BEING DECLARED EXTRATROPICAL AND
THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY. SHIP ABCC4 AND QUIKSCAT SUGGEST THE
MAXIMUM WINDS REMAIN NEAR 60 KT. A SLOW WEAKENING IS FORECAST IN
LINE WITH GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE. . .
NOAA NHC track prediction for TS Cristobal, which could travel anywhere within the white area. At time of posting the storm affects the coast of NC, but seems likely to pour water on the province of NS by Tuesday.
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032008
500 PM EDT SUN JUL 20 2008
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS BEEN SIGNIFICANTLY INCREASING IN THE
SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE STORM. HOWEVER...THE FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS AT
5000 FT HAVE BEEN NO HIGHER THAN 46 KT RECENTLY...NORMALLY
CORRESPONDING TO ABOUT 35 KT AT THE SURFACE. THE SFMR DID MEASURE
46 KT IN DEEP CONVECTION SOUTHEAST OF THE CYCLONE. GIVEN THE LACK
OF PERSISTENCE IN THE CONVECTION DURING THE LAST DAY OR SO...WE'RE
GOING TO USE A COMPROMISE INITIAL INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF 40 KT.
SOME INTENSIFICATION IS POSSIBLE AS THE SYSTEM FIGHTS THE DRY AIR
ALOFT AND REMAINS OVER THE WARM GULF STREAM WATERS. THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST IS A LITTLE LOWER THAN BEFORE...BUT ABOVE MOST OF THE
GUIDANCE.
THE INITIAL MOTION CONTINUES NORTHEASTWARD AT 7 KT...A LITTLE FASTER
THAN BEFORE. THIS GENERAL TRACK SHOULD CONTINUE WITH AN INCREASING
FORWARD DUE TO FASTER STEERING CURRENTS BETWEEN A MID-TROPOSPHERIC
HIGH TO THE EAST AND AN APPROACHING MIDDLE-LATITUDE TROUGH. IN A
COUPLE OF DAYS...A COMBINATION OF SSTS BELOW 20C AND A LARGE
INCREASE IN VERTICAL WIND SHEAR SHOULD FACILITATE AN EXTRATROPICAL
TRANSITION OF THE STORM. THE APPROACHING TROUGH WILL PROBABLY
ABSORB CRISTOBAL IN ABOUT THREE DAYS...THOUGH A FEW MODELS DO KEEP
IT MORE SEPARATE FROM THE TROUGH. THERE HAS BEEN LITTLE CHANGE TO
THE GUIDANCE...AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS
ONE.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 20/2100Z 34.7N 75.8W 40 KT
12HR VT 21/0600Z 35.9N 74.3W 45 KT
24HR VT 21/1800Z 37.9N 71.6W 45 KT
36HR VT 22/0600Z 40.8N 68.0W 45 KT
48HR VT 22/1800Z 44.0N 63.5W 45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
72HR VT 23/1800Z...ABSORBED
(Bolding format is done by me.)Comment: Three named storms are active at the same time. It's a good thing that they appear not to be very strong ones.
NOAA NHC 5-day track cone for TS Dolly — at time of posting, Dolly is anticipated to travel over the Yucatan peninsula and cross intervening GoM waters before heading inland over northern Mexico and south TX.
TROPICAL STORM DOLLY DISCUSSION NUMBER 2
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042008
500 PM EDT SUN JUL 20 2008
DOLLY APPEARS TO BE SLOWLY ORGANIZING OVER THE VERY WARM WATERS OF
THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN... ... SFMR AND FLIGHT-LEVEL
WINDS SUPPORT MAINTAINING THE INTENSITY AT 40 KT. UPPER-LEVEL
OUTFLOW IS GRADUALLY EXPANDING...EVEN TO THE WEST...AS WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY SHOWS THAT THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW JUST WEST OF DOLLY IS HEADED
RAPIDLY SOUTHWESTWARD AND IS WEAKENING. DOLLY IS NOT EXPECTED TO
STRENGTHEN MUCH...IF AT ALL...AS IT CROSSES THE YUCATAN PENINSULA
EARLY TOMORROW. ONCE IT EMERGES OVER THE SOUTHERN GULF...
HOWEVER...IT WILL BE SITUATED BENEATH A LARGE UPPER-LEVEL
ANTICYCLONE AND OVER SEA-SURFACE TEMPERATURES OF AT LEAST 28
CELSIUS. GIVEN THESE CONDITIONS...AND ASSUMING THE CYCLONE REMAINS
INTACT AND VERTICALLY ALIGNED AFTER ITS PASSAGE OVER YUCATAN...
STRENGTHENING OVER THE GULF APPEARS TO BE THE MOST LIKELY SCENARIO.
ALL OF THE PRIMARY OBJECTIVE INTENSITY MODELS FORECAST THAT TO
HAPPEN...AND ALL FORECAST DOLLY TO ATTAIN HURRICANE STATUS OVER THE
WESTERN GULF. THE NEW OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST FOLLOWS THAT
GUIDANCE...BUT IT IS IMPORTANT TO REMEMBER THAT LONG-RANGE
INTENSITY FORECASTS HAVE A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY.
. . . THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE ALONG THE GULF COAST
IS FORECAST BY ALL OF THE MODELS TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN AFTER DOLLY
REACHES THE GULF...SO THEY ALL FORECAST A DECREASE IN FORWARD
MOTION STARTING IN A COUPLE OF DAYS. . . . IT
IS FAR TOO EARLY TO DETERMINE EXACTLY WHERE DOLLY WILL MAKE FINAL
LANDFALL. . .
(My bolding and excerpting.)
* My humble disclaimer: I am a hobbyist and not a meteorologist. Whether the named storms remain (relatively) weak cannot be known at this time, and certainly not by me! The graphics and hyperlinks are from the originating web pages. Weather is cool, but at this season I am mainly interested in how it will affect my lawn and garden and not (as in winter) how easy or difficult the commute to work might be.
** Other news: The Niagara Health System is in the throes of reorganization in order to maximize its scarce resources and minimize its apparently unavoidably large deficit. In a separate item, 5 pandemic care centres have been identified, such that no person in that area need drive more than 20 minutes to triage in case of pandemic. Info source: community newspapers.
BERTHA #3, Tropical Storm
It is Monday, July 14, 2008 and we've had quite a bit of rain recently. News reports for Toronto mentioned localized flooding plus the tale of an unfortunate man that was killed by lightning due to standing under a large tree. Apparently there was localized flooding in North Bay, ON, as well. The field crops in my part of southern Ontario are doing well; the cherries and strawberries from the growers are juicy and sweet; and I finally got to wear shorts for a couple of days before it went cool again. Meanwhile, the wild turkeys, seagulls, and rabbits seem to be in fine form. . .!
Out in the Atlantic, named storm Bertha has subsided into a tropical storm once more.
NOAA NHC 5-day track prediction for TS Bertha. At date of posting, it looks like the storm could dissipate out at sea without troubling the northeast states or Canadian Maritimes. . . we can hope.
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022008
1100 AM EDT MON JUL 14 2008
THE INITIAL MOTION IS 350/6. BERTHA IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ON A
NORTHWARD TRACK FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO AS MID-LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE
TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE CYCLONE WEAKENS AND SLIDES EASTWARD. WITH
THE STRONGEST WINDS LOCATED 50-60 NMI FROM THE CENTER...
HOWEVER...THE PRECISE TRACK OF THE CENTER IS RELATIVELY UNIMPORTANT
FOR CONDITIONS ON BERMUDA...WHERE TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS COULD
CONTINUE THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING. AFTER BERTHA PASSES BERMUDA...A
COMPLICATED STEERING PATTERNS AWAITS...WITH A STRONG UPPER-LEVEL LOW
CURRENTLY NEAR 40N/42W FORECAST TO DROP SOUTHWESTWARD. . . .
Wild adventurer that I am, I have tried out some tender (wild) dandelion leaves, and even cooked they were nothing very exciting. I guess they would fall into the category of "famine food", which you'd eat if there was nothing else. The liquid in the pot, however, would do okay as a vitamin-rich tonic or perhaps in soup as a minor ingredient. The tame varieties must be much better if they are offered for sale and people buy them!
* My humble disclaimer: I am a hobbyist that loves the song of the wind in the trees. Since I am not a meteorologist, I don't have an opinion on how strong the winds in Bermuda are likely to be. The map might or might not update; the hyperlinks lead to the originating web pages. Weather is very cool.
Bertha #2 (Tropical Storm)
It is Friday, July 04, 2008 and in the USA it is Independence Day. Last night the temperature in my area of southern Ontario went down quite low for the season, and by morning was at 9 degrees Centigrade. Now at almost noon (Eastern time) the temperature has come up to about 20 degrees. The field crops look like they are doing well, with corn looking good; cherries festooning the orchard trees like Christmas decorations; a crop of hay in bales in the fields and local asparagus, peas and strawberries on sale at the fruit stands.
Out in the Atlantic, the named storm, TS Bertha is chugging along.
NOAA NHC graphic showing location of TS Bertha at time of posting.
It is still unclear if Bertha will remain a Tropical Storm or upgrade to a hurricane, and there are apparently two possible tracks that the storm could follow. Here is an excerpt from the NOAA NHC discussion on the matter:
TROPICAL STORM BERTHA DISCUSSION NUMBER 6
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022008
1100 AM EDT FRI JUL 04 2008 . . .
MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE SHEAR COULD INCREASEComment: It's always a question, whether these storms will track toward the ocean, the Caribbean and GoM, or swing up the Atlantic seaboard toward Canada . . .
THEREAFTER...SO THE NEW FORECAST KEEPS THE INTENSITY JUST SHY OF
HURRICANE STRENGTH. HOWEVER....IT IS WORTH MENTIONING THAT THE
SHIPS...LGEM...AND GFDL MODELS FORECAST BERTHA TO BECOME A
HURRICANE IN 3-4 DAYS.
BERTHA IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT A LITTLE FASTER
PACE...290/14. THE STORM SHOULD REMAIN ON THIS GENERAL HEADING
DURING THE NEXT 2-3 DAYS AS IT IS LOCATED SOUTH OF A MID-LEVEL
RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC. THE GUIDANCE HAS CONTINUED TO
SHIFT WESTWARD...BUT THERE REMAINS TWO DISTINCT ENVELOPES...ONE
THAT CONSISTS OF THE HWRF AND GFDL THAT TURN THE CYCLONE
NORTHWESTWARD BEYOND DAY 3....AND THE OTHER WHICH KEEPS BERTHA
ON A MORE WEST-NORTHWEST TRACK.
* My humble disclaimer: I am a hobbyist and diarist with spider mites in my strawberries (boo) and some kind of wilt in some of my raspberry bushes (boo) but lots of saskatoon berries now ready to pick and very good with ice cream (yay). On Canada Day (July 1st) my family celebrated with banana splits but there's lots of ice cream left to enjoy with the berries. I'll be watching TS Bertha to see what happens, but while the storm is far from land it's an armchair entertainment only. Weather is so cool — but better when it isn't drowning the garden with rain.
Named Storm Bertha
It is Thursday, July 3rd, 2008 and while checking the weather I discovered that there is now a named storm called Bertha in the Atlantic ocean.
Canadian Hurricane Centre (CHC) shows NHC track forecast for named storm Bertha. At time of posting, the forecast anticipates Bertha remaining out to sea and moving to about the same latitude as the Bahamas.
In my part of southern Ontario, currently it's about 20 degrees Centigrade and cloudy. I am determined not to turn on the furnace overnight for heating if I can avoid it!
* My humble disclaimer: I am a hobbyist and not a meteorologist. This diary of weather and other events is my souvenir of the changing flow of passing phenomena that otherwise exist in only in my digital photographs. I love the weather but prefer not to have to wear a jacket in summertime, hence my residence in southern ON, one of the warmest parts of Canada. I will find more information about Bertha as the opportunity presents itself. Weather is sooo cool.
